COW Circuits

Key Note: Circuits help us understand team versatility to a great extent. The lower the Lower Circuit, the more the team is capable of a comeback. Similarly, a lower Upper Circuit means that the team can seal matches faster.

Circuits? Like F1 circuits?

Ha, no. The numbers generated by COW at the end of every over depict the percentage chances each team has after considering various parameters at that point of time. Clearly, at various stages, either of the team might have an edge over the other. But then, having an edge does not mean that the match is won. This is when that term ‘comeback’ comes into the picture. So, COW does not predict a winner? It does. That’s what circuits are for.

Ok. So now, should I follow another set of numbers as well?

COW numbers are just like any other series of numbers which get generated continuously and gives us patterns over a period of time. We’ve seen that the teams have adhered to this pattern more often than not. In pure cricketing sense, any ardent follower knows the situations from which his team generally doesn’t come back or from where his team does not lose. Patterns from COW numbers are just a scientific derivation of the same. We give those instincts a face with a number.

What are they exactly?

We derive two points from the COW numbers of the teams generated over a period of time. These are lower and upper circuits.

Lower circuit is the average COW% after which the team gives up any sort of fight in a game. For example, if team A was losing to team B and A’s chances are above their lower circuit, we can expect them to fight back. If the COW% is below the lower circuit, it means that team A have never fought back from here, and in almost all cases, never will.

Upper circuit is derived in exactly the opposite manner. This is the point that triggers a victory for a team. If a team crosses this percentage in the upward direction, we can expect them to win as their COW graphs have only risen from there. Ever.

While a standalone match cannot be a trustworthy source for pattern generation, the averages of these numbers over a few matches depict the general pattern for the team.

So, these circuits are final calls on who is winning?

This was obviously the first question we asked ourselves when we developed the circuits. We tested this on a tournament as dramatic and unpredictable as IPL 2010 and we clocked an accuracy of 86%; which means that, at least 8 out of 10 times, the circuits were able to predict the winner…and thank God for the 14% inaccuracy. Else, the whole betting industry would have been shut down and we’d have inadvertently affected thousands of jobs and lives.