Key Note: Circuits help us understand team versatility to a great
extent. The lower the Lower Circuit, the more the team is capable of a comeback.
Similarly, a lower Upper Circuit means that the team can seal matches faster.
FAQs on Circuits:
Circuits? Like F1 circuits?
Ha, no. The numbers generated by COW at the end of every over depict the percentage
chances each team has after considering various parameters at that point of time.
Clearly, at various stages, either of the team might have an edge over the other.
But then, having an edge does not mean that the match is won. This is when that
term ‘comeback’ comes into the picture. So, COW does not predict a winner? It does.
That’s what circuits are for.
Ok. So now, should I follow another set of numbers as well?
COW numbers are just like any other series of numbers which get generated continuously
and gives us patterns over a period of time. We’ve seen that the teams have adhered
to this pattern more often than not. In pure cricketing sense, any ardent follower
knows the situations from which his team generally doesn’t come back or from where
his team does not lose. Patterns from COW numbers are just a scientific derivation
of the same. We give those instincts a face with a number.
What are they exactly?
We derive two points from the COW numbers of the teams generated over a period of
time. These are lower and upper circuits.
Lower circuit is the average COW% after which the team gives up
any sort of fight in a game. For example, if team A was losing to team B and A’s
chances are above their lower circuit, we can expect them to fight back. If the
COW% is below the lower circuit, it means that team A have never fought back from
here, and in almost all cases, never will.
Upper circuit is derived in exactly the opposite manner. This is
the point that triggers a victory for a team. If a team crosses this percentage
in the upward direction, we can expect them to win as their COW graphs have only
risen from there. Ever.
While a standalone match cannot be a trustworthy source for pattern generation,
the averages of these numbers over a few matches depict the general pattern for
So, these circuits are final calls on who is winning?
This was obviously the first question we asked ourselves when we developed the circuits.
We tested this on a tournament as dramatic and unpredictable as IPL 2010 and we
clocked an accuracy of 86%; which means that, at least 8 out of 10 times, the circuits
were able to predict the winner…and thank God for the 14% inaccuracy. Else, the
whole betting industry would have been shut down and we’d have inadvertently affected
thousands of jobs and lives.