So, the Super Eight starts off with one pre-tournament title contender – India –and one of the most mercurial and unpredictable teams – Pakistan – not making the cut. That, however, does not make the Super Eights any less predictable.

 As of now, the Super Eight table stands so

Such is the format of the tournament and the subsequent turn of events (and, of course, the ‘glorious uncertainties of the game’) that two of the four teams who start off with 2 extra points are not even favourites to qualify for the semis, let alone be assured of a spot.

Two (near) certain qualifiers

Australia, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and West Indies go in with 2 extra points. However, Australia and New Zealand have a distinct advantage over their two counterparts on account of the fact they get a game against two easier teams ( recent events have led me to temporarily abandon the term ‘minnows’), and are almost assured of 4 further points. This pretty much guarantees Australia and New Zealand a semi-final spot.

 
If each of the top six teams wins their games against Bangladesh and Ireland i.e. if Bangladesh and Ireland do not cause any upsets, the points table will look like this.

(assuming Bangladesh beat Ireland)

The rest who are left

We are now left with Sri Lanka, West Indies, South Africa and England (apart from Bangladesh and Ireland). Of the lot, perhaps it is safe to assume that South Africa have a better chance of going through because of two reasons

A) Recent incredible run of form shows that they are clearly favourites to defeat the other three teams in the fray, and therefore get ahead.

B) They have two games against weaker teams, making it four easy points as against two for Lanka and West Indies.

The three-way tie

This leaves us with Sri Lanka, West Indies and England. While England have the extra game against a weaker opposition, this is evened out by the fact that Lanka and West Indies start off with the extra 2 points.

This makes the Sri Lanka – England, England – West Indies, Sri Lanka – West Indies games extremely important to determine who is likely to be the fourth semi-finalist. Current form may suggest Lanka, but we wouldn’t advise you to bet too much money on that.

England and West Indies are unpredictable, but England have been up and down, and West Indies have the home advantage.

It is likely that the Sri Lanka – West Indies tie will decide who takes the fourth place in the semis.

The Bangladesh – Ireland impact

It is almost impossible for either of these two teams to go through, because it will mean having to win atleast four out of their eight games, which , you will admit, is imposible, as romantic as it may seem. It may be reasonable for us to expect them to get 2 to at the most 6 points.

But they will, nevertheless, have an impact in the Super Eight. If they can’t go in, they will determine who will go down with them. Any upsets created by these teams can upset the overall scheme of things, and give any of the other teams an opening.

If Bangladesh or Ireland defeat any of Australia, New Zealand or South Africa, it will leave the doors open for any of the three remaining three teams to make an early and easy entry into the Super Eight.

If Bangladesh or Ireland defeat Sri Lanka, West Indies or England, it will give the other two teams in the three-way tie a useful advantage over their opponent.

Semis and the Finals

If things go as they should, and if Australia and South Africa do not bungle up, it is unlikely that they will meet in the semis, since the semis are between teams placed 1^st and 4^th and teams placed 2^nd and 3^rd. Neither South Africa nor Australia are likely to finish fourth.

So, if Australia and South Africa do not play each other in the semis, it sets up the prospect of an Australia – South Africa final. Of course, it may not happen, quite a few things need to go to plan for that, either of the two teams may even lose in the semis, but there is a chance…..just a chance, but a chance nonetheless. If an Australia – South Africa final does happen……..ahhhhh.