The Super Eight had proceeded without too many surprises in terms of results, although we have already had two edge-of-the-seat thrillers. There was general talk about the four teams entering the semis being obvious and completely predictable. Everything seemed scripted and in order. And then South Africa lost to Bangladesh and everything went to hell all the once.

 
Australia and New Zealand have nothing to upset the odds that in favour of their spot in the semis. But then comes the real struggle with the four way tie between Lanka, South Africa and the West Indies. The last night I had written that the former two were clear favourties. Today morning, I am forced to change that sentence.

In the meantime, all is not lost yet for the Poms and the hosts, and let us take a look at what the power structure looks like midway through the Super Eight stage.

This is what the table looks like now.

Lanka Vs Windies Vs England

Lanka have won their games against the Windies and England, which leaves them two steps ahead. And they have a game against Ireland in hand, which makes it potentially three steps ahead. To counter that, what West Indies will need to do is beat Bangladesh, South Africa and England, and hope that Lanka lose all against Australia and New Zealand.

This will leave them both tied at 8 points. So to go ahead of Lanka, what the Windies will need is for either Lanka to lose to Ireland, or for some other team apart from England to be tied with them at 8 points so that the head to head is out of the picture.

All in all, a tough ask.

Lets move on now to England.

 Of all the teams in the Super Eight, the Englishmen have looked the least likely to win the World Cup, not because of lack of talent, but more because of an indifferent, demotivated demeanour to the side. But possibly, Bopara and Nixon's spirited comeback may just act as that little tequilla shot to get them shaken and , well, stirred.

 
To make up for their loss against, Lanka, England will have to first win against a team Lanka has lost to - South Africa - which still leaves them at 4 points. To then draw level with the West Indies and Lanka (if the above conditions are satisfied), they will also have to win against Bangladesh (something you certainly can't take for granted after last night) and Australia (something you never want to have to do in a crunch situation) to get to the magic lifeline figure of 8 points.

 
Effectively, England still have a chance if they lose tonight to Australia, if they can beat Bangla, SA and the Windies.

What all this means is

 
A) For England and West Indies to have any chance, Sri Lanka has to lose all it's games, except the one with Ireland. And with a rather obvious corollary - West Indies have to win all their games.

 B) If England lose to Australia or Bangladesh, the England -West Indies becomes almost a knock out for both teams. If England do win both their games, and if the Windies beat England, and if the above condition is satisfied, we will have a three way tie between Lanka, West Indies and England at 8 points each.

 C) The Lanka - Ireland game becomes important for the other two teams in the fray, since a shock loss to Lanka there will act as a huge bonus for both these teams, and  clear the space for them to charge through.

 D) Somewhat ironically, West Indies will be hoping that England win tonight, so they won't come in with desperation to win.

Very little of all the above complications would have arosen had England managed to sneak a couple of that last ball. None of the above complications would have happened if Malinga had taken five in five that mad evening. The power of 2 runs and of one run, ladies and gentlemen.

The South African story

 
This World Cup, analysts will be spending a great deal of time with their hands on their heads as they try and sort out one four way battle after another. What seemed like a fairly predictable semi-final quartet - Lanka, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand - has suddenly been thrown into a tizzy on account of Bangaldesh's shock win last night.

 Now, if South Africa lose even one of their remaining three games , they will fall into the 8 point quicksand, where you don't know who you are going to be tied against, or how many you are going to be tied against. An unpleasant, uncertain situation that they will be desperate to avoid. To do which they will have to win all their three games to safely move into a 10 point zone, and a certain quarter final spot.

 
The South-Africa - West Indies game becomes important now for both. If Windies win, South Africa is almost certain to be stuck at 8 points or lower, and will have to hope that Windies lose their other games. England will be hoping that the Windies lose.

 
The South-Africa-England game leaves both teams with a chance to qualify even if they lose, but then a defeat in this game will leave too much in the hands of the other teams and the N.R.R.

Worse, things will become decisive if the Windies lose their other games, and these two teams end up in a two way tie, which means on a head-to-head, this game will decide their fortunes.

All in all, South Africa would much rather face defeat against New Zealand rather than against England or the Windies.

 
An extraordinarily twisted and complicated situation - and therefore extremely interesting. I don't even want to contemplate what will happen if Bangladesh beat Ireland, England and the West Indies.