Don't look now, but...

Written by Sreeram Ramachandran

Wednesday, 05 March 2008

There has only been one brief phase in the history of the game where India have actually been in World-dominance form in all formats of the game, the period between February 2003 to Mar 2004, when they came close to conquering the three major peaks that any Indian cricket team could aspire for - a series win in Pakistan, a World Cup win and a series win in Australia. There are enough indications that Indian cricket is looking at a patch that can get decidedly longer and purpler than that one.

Of course, that I have just said this is a definite indicator that this will almost certainly not happen, and Murphy will come in to help the team botch up its way to the top. But let's say for now that that doesn't happen...

Statistically, the last 10 months have been almost as good as the 2003-04 run. Between Feb 2003 and March 2004 India had an overall winning percentage of 51 (in all games including Tests and ODI's). Since April 2007 the corresponding figure stands at 49%, but have maintained that through far more matches (57 as opposed to 39). In terms of performances abroad and outside of the subcontinent the Indians have seldom been this consistent for this long. Even back during the 2003-04 tour to Australia the team had begun to flag and tire towards the end of the tour, putting up no fight in the finals. Here though, they have been constantly at the Aussies through the three month tour and have, in fact, left the Aussies gasping for breath. The good part is that there are some key differences between that and this phase.

The streak of brilliance back then was a sudden, surprise, out-of-the-blue rise that came inexplicably out of the ruins of a disastrous tour to New Zealand preceding the 2003 World Cup where the Indians middled possibly 15 balls in the entire tour. And it disappeared just as quickly, in a flash. This little showing here has come (or better still, is coming) out of a construction, a steady, tangible, clearly chalked-out process. Well, perhaps not so clearly chalked out as induced by Dhoni and the selectors' sudden inspirations, but through a process nonetheless.

So, since there is a tangible construct to hold on to, it is unlikely that there will be the kind of sudden and abrupt dip that there was last time around.

The other key point of difference is the sheer number of performers and matchwinners. Back in 2003-04, it was basically the same team and the same set of players who stuck a rich run of form together around the same time and drove the team to great heights. Here the crux of the team that won the Test series in England, at home against Pakistan and matched up to the Aussies in Australia is almost completely different from the one responsible for its ODI successes.

Curiously and very interestingly, the bunch of players who have won India the CB series is also reasonably different from the one that won the T20 World Cup, with only Gambhir and to some extent, Harbhajan, being the common hero. R.P.Singh, Yuvraj and Uthappa were the key architects of the T20 win aside of Gambhir and Bhajji. Dhoni, Rohit Sharma, Tendulkar, Gambhir, Ishant Sharma and Pravin Kumar were largely responsible for the CB series win, which shows an almost completely different clutch of match-winners.

Another very significant point has been the regularity with which the team has had setbacks and the ease with which the creases have been smoothened out.

At different points in the whole tour to Australia, India kept seeing the players it relied heavily on either hobble into an injury or stumble into bad form. Zaheer, R.P.Singh and Ishant Sharma faced injuries just when they had the responsibility of being the pace spearhead nestled on their shoulders. Yuvraj slipped into a horrendous run of play, Pathan began to leak runs towards the end of the tournament and Uthappa didn't produce a major innings of note despite a few starts.

But each time someone stepped up - Sharma, Gambhir, Dhoni and eventually Sachin with the bat, Ishant and Pravin Kumar with the ball- which is something quite uncharacteristic when it comes to India, or indeed, any team from the subcontinent.

A sobering thought, but also one that holds a backhanded compliment is that India haven't really performed that well in ODI's. For most part of the CB series Australia were clearly the better team, primarily because India was busy fumbling run chases. Prior to the CB series win there have been reasonably convincing series defeats against England and Australia. And for all the arguments about bad umpiring and unfair decisions, they did lose the Test series.

At any given point of time there has only been about 60% of the side firing. The encouraging and somewhat alarming thought is that the degree of success that has been achieved with 60% of the side firing is easily as much as what was achieved with almost every player firing in the 2003-04 run.

From hereon the team can either go on to actually reach their potential and go on to truly dominate, or slip into an anti-climatic fall. Going by history, the latter is what you would expect. But the Indian team has clearly not been bogged down by the past and has gone on to outdo their predecessors. So if you are a betting person, it may not be a bad idea to lay some of your money on India in the coming months. Just some of it though - you never should bet all your money on a team from the subcontinent.

(Click here to know more about Sreeram)

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