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We will try and be as un-preachy as we can as we go along.
The recent trends...
In Sri Lanka's last five games at home and India's last five games abroad....
1) Lanka has five forty+ scores, while India have 11.
2) The Indian batsmen have tended to score runs in clusters i.e. when one batsman scores, so do most of the others, while the Lankans have been more oriented towards the lone ranger.
3) The primary Lankan bowlers have taken 26 wickets in their last five games at home, while the corresponding figure for India is 19. However, a chief contributor to this tally, Fervez Mahroof, will not be playing.
4) But then again, the above count of 26 does NOT include Ajantha Mendis, who will be playing ODI’s at home for the first time.
[Above: The graphs indicate the scores of the key Indian (while playing away) and Sri Lankan (while playing at home) batsmen in their last five innings, roll your mouse over the graph to see the second image, do give it a minute to load, though. X-axis represents runs and y-axis represents the match)
(Below: The graphs indicate the wickets taken by the key Indian (again, away) and Sri Lankan (again, home) bowlers in their last five games, roll your mouse over the graph to see the second image. X-axis represents wickets and Y-axis represents the match]
(Some of the graphs may appear a little pixelate/distorted. Please, ahh, view that as a fancy new style of posting graphs rather than as a visual error.)
5) When chasing, India have crossed 200 four times in their last five games abroad, while the Lankans have only done it once in their last five games at home. But it needs to be noted that India played their last few games in the run-rich pitches of the Asia cup. So this may be more of an indication of the kind of pitches we may see in Lanka than anything else, though a look at Yuvraj’s innings yesterday has made us wonder what the hell are we talking about when we say that.
6) While batting first, the Indians have been sporadic, with scores ranging from 308 to 187, while Sri Lanka has been a bit more consistent. However, the scores they have been consistent on – in and around 200 - won’t make them very happy.
[The above graphs (roll the mouse over the visible graph to see the second image) indicate the runs scored by both teams in their last five games (India playing away, Sri Lanka playing at home) when batting first, and when batting second]
Overall career stats
7) Overall, the Indian batting as a team has a significantly higher average (35.81 runs per wicket) than that of the Lankans (27.01 rpw).
8) However, on taking Tendulkar out of the equation, the average comes to just above 33, thought that is still more than that of the Lankans.
9) The Indians score 49% of their runs in boundaries, as against the Lankan percentage of 39. This MAY be a disadvantage for the Indians given that on the presumably slow and low Lankan wickets, boundaries may be a little difficult to come by.
10) No Sri Lankan batsman has a 50-100 conversion rate of over 30%, while three Indian batsmen do, with the fourth being at 29%. So, the Indian batting seems to be adept at going from the 1st fifty to the second. The problem, of course, is that they don’t get to the first one nearly consistently enough.
11) The top three Indian strike rates are 99.14, 92.18 and 87.12 (Sehwag, Dhoni and Yuvraj respectively), while the top three Sri Lankan strike rates are 91.16, 80.73 and 76.78 (Jayasuriya, Dilshan and Jayawardene).
12) The Lankan bowlers enjoy a much better bowling average (25.49) than the Indians (31.23).
13) The Indian bowling has no reliable ‘wrecking ball’, i.e. one bowler who can be expected to run through the opposition innings, with the best average being 29.44 (Zaheer Khan), whereas the best Sri Lankan average is that of Ajantha Mendis (10.25), followed by Murali at 22.85.
Key career batting stats of the Indian and Sri Lankan teams, note particularly the team average, team strike rate, and each player's deviation from it
|
Sri Lanka
|
Inns
|
Runs
|
Ave
|
Deviation from team’s Avg
|
SR
|
50- 100 Conversion Rate
|
% runs in Boundaries
|
|
Sanath Jayasuriya
|
404
|
12688
|
32.87
|
5.86
|
91.16
|
29
|
64
|
|
K Sangakkara
|
208
|
6740
|
36.43
|
9.42
|
74.7
|
19
|
43
|
|
Mahela Jayawardene
|
260
|
7645
|
32.95
|
5.94
|
76.78
|
18
|
38
|
|
Chamara Silva
|
46
|
1323
|
31.5
|
4.49
|
70.71
|
8
|
38
|
|
TM Dilshan
|
126
|
2950
|
29.5
|
2.49
|
80.73
|
7
|
35
|
|
Chamara Kapugedera
|
31
|
703
|
23.43
|
-3.58
|
76
|
0
|
46
|
|
Chaminda Vaas
|
218
|
2008
|
13.75
|
-13.26
|
72.77
|
0
|
32
|
|
Nuwan Kulasekara
|
21
|
141
|
15.66
|
-11.35
|
61.84
|
0
|
21
|
|
|
|
Team Avg:
|
27.01
|
SR
|
75.59
|
|
39.42
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
India
|
Inns
|
Runs
|
Ave
|
Deviation from team’s Avg
|
SR
|
Conversion Rate
|
% runs in Boundaries
|
|
G Gambhir
|
56
|
1951
|
39.02
|
3.21
|
82.25
|
31
|
50
|
|
V Sehwag
|
186
|
5810
|
32.45
|
-3.36
|
99.14
|
24
|
64
|
|
Sachin Tendulkar
|
407
|
16361
|
44.33
|
8.52
|
85.49
|
32
|
50
|
|
Yuvraj Singh
|
194
|
6069
|
36.56
|
0.75
|
87.12
|
18
|
50
|
|
R Sharma
|
22
|
471
|
27.7
|
-8.11
|
73.36
|
0
|
35
|
|
MS Dhoni
|
102
|
3600
|
48
|
12.19
|
92.18
|
15
|
46
|
|
Suresh Raina
|
37
|
1034
|
34.46
|
-1.35
|
83.72
|
29
|
46
|
|
Irfan Pathan
|
74
|
1341
|
23.94
|
-11.87
|
78.97
|
0
|
52
|
|
|
|
Team Avg:
|
35.81
|
SR
|
85.28
|
|
49.15
|
Key career bowling stats of the Indian and Sri Lankan teams, note particularly the team average, team eco. rate, and each player's deviation from it
|
Sri Lanka
|
Inns
|
Runs
|
Wkts
|
Ave
|
Deviation from team’s Avg
|
Econ
|
Deviation from team’s Econ
|
Frequency of 4+ Wkts in an innings
|
|
Chaminda Vaas
|
317
|
10907
|
398
|
27.40
|
-1.91
|
4.19
|
0.10
|
24
|
|
Nuwan Kulasekara
|
32
|
1049
|
28
|
37.46
|
-11.97
|
4.52
|
-0.23
|
0
|
|
Muttiah Muralitharan
|
302
|
10858
|
475
|
22.85
|
2.64
|
3.87
|
0.42
|
14
|
|
Ajantha Mendis
|
8
|
205
|
20
|
10.25
|
15.24
|
3.66
|
0.63
|
3
|
|
Dilhara Fernando
|
120
|
4717
|
160
|
29.48
|
-3.99
|
5.19
|
-0.90
|
30
|
|
|
|
|
Avg
|
25.49
|
Dev-n Avg
|
4.29
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
India
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Inns
|
Runs
|
Wkts
|
Ave
|
Deviation from team’s Avg
|
Econ
|
Deviation from team’s Econ
|
Frequency of 4+ Wkts in an innings
|
|
Praveen Kumar
|
12
|
521
|
16
|
32.56
|
-1.34
|
4.80
|
0.05
|
4
|
|
Irfan Pathan
|
99
|
4269
|
145
|
29.44
|
1.79
|
5.22
|
-0.37
|
20
|
|
Zaheer Khan
|
142
|
5910
|
201
|
29.40
|
1.83
|
4.91
|
-0.06
|
20
|
|
Harbhajan Singh
|
164
|
6335
|
189
|
33.51
|
-2.29
|
4.18
|
0.67
|
41
|
|
Munaf Patel
|
27
|
1064
|
34
|
31.29
|
-0.07
|
4.72
|
0.13
|
27
|
|
RP Singh
|
44
|
1807
|
58
|
31.15
|
0.07
|
5.26
|
-0.41
|
22
|
|
|
|
|
Avg
|
31.23
|
Dev-n Avg
|
4.85
|
|
|
And at the auspicious number of 13, we'll stop. These may not be all the insights there are, scan the graphs and the following tables and you could unearth more information, and if you find anything, do tell us about it.
In summary, the story isn't any different from what it usually is when India play. Their batting is stronger, but sporadic, and the Lankan bowling line up, particularly at home, is amongst the toughest they will face. Who wins the series will depend on two variables, on reasonably steady - the Lankan bowling, and the other disturbingly moody - the Indian batting. The good news for the Indians is they are not dependent on any one player, and the burst of magic could come from any of the top six - seven batsmen.
!joomlacomment 4.0 Copyright (C) 2009 Compojoom.com . All rights reserved."
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