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This isn't Afridi's best yet!
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Articles -
Classics
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Tuesday, 22 June 2010 23:25 |
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Contributed by Jatin Thakkar
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(13207 views) |
Two centuries in three innings and everyone seems to believe that captaincy has transformed Shahid Afridi into the weapon of mass destruction that he always had the potential to be. We say that Afridi has hit a purple patch and no more and that he will almost certainly hit a lean patch very soon. At Holding Willey, we always back up our views with solid facts. So we thought of running him through some random statistical test to confirm our belief.
Afridi's entire ODI career was divided into blocks of 5-innings form-determining patches. So his best 5-innings performances were compared to his current 5-innings purple patch on which a general perception of this being his best form so far is set. However, for each 5-innings block we also took in to consideration the 10 innings that followed this block to find out what exactly such good form does to him. And the comparison of 5-innings average to 10-innings average was put up as the litmus paper test for it.
The story shaped up this way:
Afridi started his career with one of his first 200+ purple patches in his very first 5 innings (he has achieved only 4 such patches in 296 matches!). This spread got him 210 runs which included 102 against Lanka in just 40 deliveries and a quick fire 66 off 37 against a not-so-weak Zimbabwe. Next 10 Innings? Only 114 runs! Shows a fall of 73% in the comparative average.
The next 200+ came only a year later in 1997 when he managed 210 runs again. India was the key target but the feature of this run was the fact that he only made one half-century in this patch. Some sort of consistency to say. Next 10 Inns? He scored 226 runs in next 10 innings which marks a fall of 46% in the comparative average.
And boy, did that mark the end of Afridi's high note? At least for another 4 years. Only in 2001 Afridi managed another patch of 194 runs (yes, an exception to 200+ runs criteria or else the year would have been 2005!). No century again in this patch. And in the 10 Innings thereafter? With 307 runs in 10 innings (thanks to a century against Kiwis) it marks a drop of only 22% in the comparative average. So that makes it his most consistent 15 innings patch with an average of 33 runs per match.
Another gap of four years (yes again!) and he achieved his best 5-Inns patch of his career in 2005. A tally of 238 runs against India and Windies which included a 46 ball century and a quick fire 56. After effects? Just 141 runs in 10 innings and a drop of 70% in the comparative average. Wonder what the PCB gets more worried about- his bad form or good form?
So here we are at his supposedly best performance in last 5 matches (excluding century against Bangladesh, which came under no-pressure, easy attack) where has scored 211 runs against Aussies, Lankans and Indians. This includes a century which almost won the match for Pakistan against Lanka. After effects? Based on his performances so far in his career, he should have an average drop of 53% on comparative average. So we expect only 198 runs (crossing 330 runs would make this his best patch ever) from him in next 10 inns.
Only if Afridi is able to leave these statistics behind, we can conclude that he has really lifted his game a notch as he shoulders the responsibility of captaincy. And if he really does manage that, we could see his blinking-tube-like career see a dazzling ending in a couple of years. And we wish he is able to do that as much as Pakistan does if not the PCB.
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