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COW Circuits
( 14 Votes )
Contributed by The Stats Team    (8943 views)


ODIs



COW circuits for all teams in ODI:


*Updated till 14th November 2014 (i.e. till the last ODI match of Aus v SA - 1st ODI)

Next ODI: Australia v South Africa - 2nd ODI at Western Australia Cricket Association Ground, Perth, Sunday 16 November 2014 at 03:20 GMT | 11:20 local | 08:50 IST

And

Next ODI: India v Sri Lanka - 5th ODI at JSCA International Stadium Complex, Ranchi, Sunday 16 November 2014 at 08:00 GMT | 13:30 local | 13:30 IST

Team Lower Circuit Upper Circuit
South Africa 25 75
West Indies 25 80
India 20 75
England 25 75
Pakistan 25 75
Sri Lanka 25 75
New Zealand 20 80
Australia 25 75
Bangladesh 20 75
Zimbabwe 20 75

T20Is



COW circuits for all teams in T20I:

*Updated till 9th November 2014 (i.e. till the last T20I match of Aus v SA - 3rd T20I)

Next T20I: New Zealand v Pakistan - 1st T20I at Dubai International Cricket Stadium, Thursday 4 December 2014 at 16:00 GMT | 20:00 local | 21:30 IST

Team Lower Circuit Upper Circuit
South Africa 30 70
West Indies 25 70
India 25 70
England 25 75
Pakistan 30 70
Sri Lanka 35 75
New Zealand 30 65
Australia 30 70
Bangladesh 30 75
Zimbabwe 30 80

What are COW Circuits?



Key Note: Circuits help us understand team versatility to a great extent. The lower the Lower Circuit, the more the team is capable of a comeback. Similarly, a lower Upper Circuit means that the team can seal matches faster.

FAQs on Circuits:

Circuits? Like F1 circuits?

Ha, no. The numbers generated by COW at the end of every over depict the percentage chances each team has after considering various parameters at that point of time. Clearly, at various stages, either of the team might have an edge over the other. But then, having an edge does not mean that the match is won. This is when that term ‘comeback’ comes into the picture. So, COW does not predict a winner? It does. That’s what circuits are for.

Ok. So now, should I follow another set of numbers as well?

COW numbers are just like any other series of numbers which get generated continuously and gives us patterns over a period of time. We’ve seen that the teams have adhered to this pattern more often than not. In pure cricketing sense, any ardent follower knows the situations from which his team generally doesn’t come back or from where his team does not lose. Patterns from COW numbers are just a scientific derivation of the same.  We give those instincts a face with a number.

What are they exactly?

We derive two points from the COW numbers of the teams generated over a period of time. These are lower and upper circuits.

Lower circuit is the average COW% after which the team gives up any sort of fight in a game. For example, if team A was losing to team B and A’s chances are above their lower circuit, we can expect them to fight back. If the COW% is below the lower circuit, it means that team A have never fought back from here, and in almost all cases, never will.

Upper circuit is derived in exactly the opposite manner. This is the point that triggers a victory for a team. If a team crosses this percentage in the upward direction, we can expect them to win as their COW graphs have only risen from there. Ever.

While a standalone match cannot be a trustworthy source for pattern generation, the averages of these numbers over a few matches depict the general pattern for the team.

So, these circuits are final calls on who is winning?

This was obviously the first question we asked ourselves when we developed the circuits. We tested this on a tournament as dramatic and unpredictable as IPL 2010 and we clocked an accuracy of 86%; which means that, at least 8 out of 10 times, the circuits were able to predict the winner…and thank God for the 14% inaccuracy. Else, the whole betting industry would have been shut down and we’d have inadvertently affected thousands of jobs and lives.


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Last Updated on Friday, 14 November 2014 20:31
 
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